NEW YORK (CNNMONEY.COM) -- The Mortgage Bankers Association has slashed its estimate of the number of mortgages its members will issue in 2009. One reason: Few refinancings are being done under President Obama's ballyhooed Home Affordable Refinance Program.

The MBA is forecasting mortgage originations of $2.03 trillion for the year, a drop of more than $700 billion from its March forecast. More than $600 billion of the drop is due to fewer refinancings than originally predicted. Only 13,000 Obama refinancings have been completed during the first three months after the program's launch, the MBA said Monday. Policy makers originally projected that 4 million to 5 million mortgage borrowers would take advantage of the program over the next year.

The Obama plan targets borrowers with loans guaranteed or owned by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and it enables them to qualify for refinancing into a lower rate if their balances are too high relative to their home values.

Courson does believe that Obama refis will eventually pick up. Ironically, the increased interest rates of recent weeks have caused normal refi requests to drop, giving lenders more incentive to go after the refis, which are a source of profit that they're not fully exploiting.

"Other refi opportunities are drying up," said Courson, "and lenders could turn to these loans."

If interest rates return to sub 5% territory, that could lure back more regular refi customers and borrowers under the Obama plan could again be given short shrift, he said. But Courson does not think rates will go that will happen.




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